Transformation of the telecommunications industry and new media

 Three trends in the fixed network to promote the triple play of voice
the overall decline in business will be replaced by wireless voice and IP, to the 2009 consumer fixed network services revenue will be lower than it is now 40%, voice services by 2010 price than is currently the dominant 2G voice services will be cheaper 50%.
can be seen from the voice, the transfer from fixed to mobile trend is irreversible.
no longer be a voice from the obstacles, there is now both long distance and roaming will be canceled. BUPT of Economics and Management Professor Overtapped interview guest rooms
Tiger Host: Beijing University of Posts today invited Professor of Economics and Management Overtapped, mainly about the telecommunications industry and the transformation of operators, the future industry, there is some impact there are some opportunities for the future in these areas within five or ten years what changes will happen? you guess a number of video services will bring many changes is that the case?
Overtapped: in terms of future trends can be summarized into several aspects. One is the fixed network voice services will be the overall decline in IP wireless voice and replaced by concrete information in my possession about a few data can give you a reference. some of the information, and experts predict By 2009 consumer fixed network services revenue will be 40% lower than it is now .2010 years ago is now not only the low-cost fixed network voice and 3G networks in the future the main driving force, by 2010 the price of voice services now account for more than dominant 2G voice services will be cheaper by 50%. If the hair is now two, the future is a hair.
Moderator: Well, this is the price of the telecommunications industry's Moore's Law, at a certain time will be reduced by half.
Overtapped: Second, you can see from the voice service, the transfer from fixed to mobile trend is irreversible. At present the development of the domestic situation, the total number of mobile subscribers has exceeded the fixed network, to the last months to reach 419 million mobile users and fixed network users is 3.5 million. mobile users than fixed users is from when in 2003, this trend is increasing.
unlimited flat rate voice prices the development trend of the future
Moderator: There is a turning point began to shift in, this is the case, said before the continue to explore. the so-called triple play of technical problems, there is also a trend that will continue to decline overall voice, another voice service to wireless, by 2005 75% of worldwide call will be initiated by the mobile, 04 only 20% of the time. There are forecasts to 2009 35% of the fixed network is about four million or so users will stop using the traditional mobile or landline and rely solely on the overall VOIP.SKYPE further maturation of these technologies and applications , not only for fixed, mobile is the impact of mobile voice services has always been mainly based on China Mobile, the current voice revenues still account for more than 85%, use this as the main source of profits for the operators how to deal with SKYPE mobile operators is a pressing issue.
the development of voice when talking about the two trends are obvious, from fixed to mobile, the other from the present traditional voice business to VOIP, SKYPE is a VOIP.
Moderator: Voice devalued, to rely on value-added services to make money in the future.
Overtapped: Yes, the future less the share of total income, like SKYPE up, the original source of the voice to make money as the main operating company's income will be greatly decreased by 40% than it is now. If voice is 1, then the next few years is only 0.4, and 0.6 lost, the loss rely on make it up? saying that the problem wearing.
third, to 09 In all of the technology, not only is the fixed or mobile, no longer a voice from the obstacles, it would, regardless of distance, regardless of city. At present there are long distance and roaming will be canceled, because with the technology and technology driven development, call cost from the original is a measure of the importance of standards, future standards will decline, not limited to voice when the flat rate price of voice services will be the development trend of the future. monthly system, which is that people in the near future to see trend.
Moderator: From the very basis of the trend is becoming a very public facilities, such as water, electricity and the same.
Overtapped: value-added business summit forum not long ago I spoke on a point of view, voice communication as one of the air or on water, sunlight, like the need, if the price should be a basis for the standard price, should such a situation. We can imagine that if you want to make money, then this is already impossible to achieve high profits. We talked about transformation issues, operators Ye Hao, the company should continue to go on to do? must be in transition, this is the inevitable trend of future development. People no longer satisfied with just a phone call, a real intervention to the stage of the so-called information and communication field, the original network into a network infrastructure built on the basis of an information network, point to point voice communication is also available from the network and other aspects of everyday life, work and play all the required type of information, this information can also be a one-way access, it can be interactive. particularly in the future, interaction is the most vital and competitive.
Moderator: This interactive feature is just like the current Internet similar.
Overtapped: this is concerned, no development of anything is subjective expectations on the people how I like it so often does not work. objective development to a certain stage, you have to stop it can not stop De to the technical conditions at that time allowed people to have the demand, the so-called current You have to be developed according to this trend, but rather that the development of objective things, by this time, any person of any group and any social forces trying to stop it and not stop, this is what we talked about the main topic of today's so-called triple play, Fusion is a big trend.
who led the most controversial triple play triple play
wide power grid in the original video media, network and voice network integration original who played the leading role. Live separation of these two lay the foundation for the integration of the network.
the basis of the future network is satisfied that as a taxpayer to the state the tax that they should enjoy a basic social resources.
is the most fundamental aspects of the problem by the taxpayer, the whole community to bear, the other part of the surface things look they are still free of other charges included in the cost of being, and this is usually said fleece us.
Moderator: the process of integration who led them there is a problem, often we are fighting for dominance of radio and television, telecommunications as well who do you think the Internet will be able to lead operations. This is the ground before the burst of digital TV transmission standard on the Tsinghua University and Shanghai Jiaotong University contention, the last Tsinghua Like to win.
Overtapped: This is an objective law, if a specific implementation and development trend of big time when things are not easy, often tortuous, or even a reversal of the phenomenon. in the history of any the development of things have this phenomenon, such examples abound, but, after all, unable to retain the Castle Peak, east to the river. We are the Yangtze River to the twists and turns into the sea in the world can not find any of the river until the river straight into the sea, this is the trend. But the problem, as is the trend of competition for dominance in the process there will be a variety of curved, and there's twists and turns and even delayed the rivers into the sea in the distance or time, it is because policy-driven man-made.
now called the integration of IPTV and other Ye Hao Ye Hao, people are generally called wide power grid, telecommunications network, the Internet is not the most talked about who from the Internet and telecommunications networks, dominance issues, The contradiction lies in what is now where? a wide network in the present or the original video media, network and voice network integration original who played a leading role, even in policies on different occasions and policy issues on the legal level, the World the development of many countries will be used as reference. In the United States entered the final permit two-way, telecommunications, access to radio and television, radio and television can also enter the telecommunications. In the primary stage of socialism in our country under the political system and national institutions, public opinion in our news media first the industry as a national level, often some of the things in the practical implementation of some aspects of the process of expansion or distortion of certain aspects.
we now see a welcome step, radio and television sector to make major reforms, according to the policy of reform to the Central Transmission and show the gradual separation of Zhibofenli. In other words, the specific content of the program level by the relevant state departments to strict supervision, but for the other aspects of communication means and to gradually open, diversified. The achievement of this policy the so-called triple play for our future which were the basis of these two networks, as this road can not predict how long to go. This involves national policy, in fact, it also relates to the specific sectoral interests or a group and another Game between the interests of a group problem. game result that our policies and in the development process, there will be a lot of not so very happy to go under the circumstances trend. This situation is not unique to China, no country exists. any the formulation of national policy interest groups are some of the results of the balance of interests between, to arrive at a compromise solution.
basic level, the network should be unified by the National Society to pay
Moderator: There are three changes there is the possibility of lower costs, but now the mobile Internet and fixed-line Internet, a toll free or there is a problem, that would not have come down?
Overtapped: This problem is also concern that people not only a broad general million Internet users and more than four hundred million mobile users concern, but also the operators of the Internet, including Sohu, and so this concern a number of SP, to provide Internet based transmission facilities, as most major carriers and all other providers, there is the problem in two dimensions. the original or its Internet charging profit model, itself, when the technology is up from free. free technology is gradually developed, people used to thinking from the mindset and habits of departure that Internet use is free of charge. mobile networks from the telecom network evolution, we are accustomed to call to use the network resources must be occupied to pay, this is the process of conceptual evolution.
another point of view Look, we put aside the point of view, both the mobile network or the Internet, there is a problem, we are using a lot of network resources, network resources, that is, the transmission network resources and the most basic resources, the most basic resources, such Who will build the network? who maintained? who will be required to pay this part of the operating costs? This is the issue before the people. for the user is concerned, we all want to use white, do not pay. but from the business person perspective, you are all white with, I am not white why? Why should I pay to maintain the network for you to use white.
then, only two results, one is a charitable organization to do this, Obviously this is not possible, such a large network is not the case. There is also a problem as I mentioned many times, as a citizen, a taxpayer is satisfied that the tax after the state should enjoy a basic social resources. as we walk the road inside the city, like in Malaysia.
the basis of the future network is not intended as the basic infrastructure of national development to look at, providing people with the most basic, like most in need We just talked about the communication communication like voice, usually walking in the street to breathe the air, the Government's duty is to give me fresh air, not to allow air to be polluted. the government or a community organization and leadership should provide a wide channel to us, that can only be the future trend.
Moderator: mobile and fixed public network address differences in Internet access, which will promote the application of business development.
Overtapped: built on such a basis network, so many other applications, this is the people in need, but not everyone needs the same people, we should distinguish the problem. I host different interests, get the information you want and I want to get the information is not the same, you need a wider bandwidth, greater access, I might not. You have this need, you have to pay more, I can not pay or do not need to pay less, demand levels there are so few new things. Internet operators, telecom network operators to provide such services to users, we are now called value-added services or new business is called.
the whole network in the future the network should be a basic level, unified national social to pay, the other in the establishment of the network on another network or to a new business network to be added to provide these IT networks, this should be the future, all other operators, operators were to do, and do provide to you later The new service charge, this cost should be under the control of the government laws of pricing by the market.
mentioned here we can look to the future of the application, at this time does not matter that you are wide power grid or telecommunications network or the Internet because the application of these operations have been integrated together. all the time together, but other application-level operating company operated by various services and applications is not the same, at this point we understand it as in the future to build a network of control and future business operations, service control are separated. public information can still be broadcast free to all, and now the Internet have a fee, mail a fee has no charge, more people have more choices. operators that the user free of charge, just like the same plane, the plane is free to drink the beverage, this money come from your plane ticket. One aspect is the most basic question by the taxpayer, the entire society to bear, the other part of the surface things look they are still free of other charges included in the cost of being, and this is usually said fleece us.
new network: the killer application is no longer to
blog must be a small minority of customers, virtually all of the blog are formed inside the circle in its group.
network or 3G in the next era of the so-called killer business, I would have predicted such a business may find no.
now has a income is higher.
Moderator: keep out of these new applications, especially in the last two years everyone said WEB2.0, come out from the Internet, mobile, fixed line companies. you estimate the future for this application What are the characteristics of what trend? are talking WEB2.0, the new mobile services, fixed-line business in the future will be what the new trend?
Overtapped: the so-called new business there too many things, if you want it an exhaustive one, we have no way Qiongju out, but we can classify it to go look around. business development types, one is commonly referred to as the business communication class, there is a category of the entire entertainment class of business, including our current online games, music, pictures, etc., we can put it down to the entertainment business. and then there is a class, business class service.
the next big trend is to look at into such categories. each category there will be some new business, some of the new application, meet the needs of all types. each type of class which in addition to basic communication beyond the basic communication class of the language now Voice, instant messaging, there are Email, etc., and with the technology will emerge more. for the entire business can be placed on understanding the needs of the most basic values of human point of view, one is the need to survive, the other is the need for security, as well as the needs of groups, as well as the needs of self-worth, these different needs can be the whole business needs to sort out classification. As for your kind of business WEB2.0 we can continue to look at how to do it. from the marketing or the operator's point of view, I can say that different customer groups, for different applications into two categories, one is an individual, as well as industry, enterprise class applications, but also various types of demand is not the same. so many angles to form multi-dimensional view, any application which can be a point of multidimensional space to meet the multidimensional space which each person is different psychological needs, different cultural levels, different income levels and different age levels, and so can take this market segment.
3G video service time needed to investigate whether the mainstream
Moderator: Now the popular blog and podcast is a self-realization, after meeting basic needs. < br> Overtapped: blog must be a small minority of customers, I call it a small minority, virtually all of the blog are formed inside the circle in its group, is a niche customer base. visit my blog for a certain is inside my circle, I'm talking about issues which we discussed issues of common concern. enter into the current business applications has previously been said from the usual hope for the network in the future or the age of the so-called killer 3G business I would have predicted such a business may not find reason where? 3G era due to technical progress, which give people more choice, this choice makes it more diverse needs, and not as people just texting the original one. SMS developed to meet the Asians because of the habit, especially in line with the Chinese people's habits, and Wu Mei and cheap and private. in the future to provide more bandwidth 3G and cheaper when At this time a variety of other business to blossom.
People have been talking about 3G, when the original old asking a question, 3G up after killer application? Who can answer this question, whether operators or CP or the SP is unable to answer such questions. We then let's use the old traditional environment, the old measure of new technology and new applications of technology is often the fault appeared.
Moderator: Everyone thinks that a wide bandwidth video services must be a killer application, a lot of venture capital to invest in the video.
Overtapped: My personal opinion may not, now has a income is very low, and we are very low in bandwidth, the rate is very small cases, it is higher income. We give a simple example, mobile TV, and now the 2.5G network of China Mobile or China Unicom, both the network can not support, we probably need to look at more than twice the tens of seconds buffer time, it is intolerable. but money is still very much because a lot of bandwidth account, money is not the time of your operators who deal with this This business who lose money, no one view of your money.
3G video service time is the mainstream, this worth exploring. existing technology may be a problem, but a lot of new technology applications in it, P2P technology also improved.
Moderator: such as using grid computing technology, large-scale distributed computing through calls to other regions of the computing and storage resources, good for the future use of bandwidth.
Overtapped: this is solved server bottleneck problems, to solve the bandwidth problem. Some people are P2P group, it is possible to accept a part of you, I accepted the part, he accepted a part, were accepted as part of our resolve to pass quickly This is very simple and is similar to grid computing or P2P technology itself.
but the current situation, problems still exist among the wireless network and unlimited bandwidth is limited. the future based on the triple play, not only at the operational level of the Internet, telecommunications networks, wide network integration, the future last mile, when the technology to a certain stage, this time must be the most beneficial use of their access method, but not necessarily wireless. I'm in the office which requires a lot of the time such as video files, it is possible I was through P2P or otherwise fixed network has entered into this place, fixed terminals and portable terminals may be equipped with Bluetooth technology, this does not occupy the resources of public network .
future access must be the integration of wireless and fixed, solve the fixed-line phone to play as it is now, even though the room is to walk around outside, turn back through the future on the basis of the network is borne by the public network, access to them by various means.
Moderator: very smart looking the closest point.
overseas expansion: first capital level after the operation
shares from the capital, operated by a local to do, this is a good way.
six major telecom operators are a boss, there is no from diversification of investment to solve many problems. It is precisely because this has brought many of the domestic telecommunications market and international economic law and contrary to the results of other laws.
China Unicom to return to China A share market in the near future as China move this in the telecommunications industry the most profitable among the most profitable companies should return back to domestic shareholders.
Moderator: Recently began to expand the domestic carriers, such as China Mobile's acquisition of Millicom, see some of your view that this expansion of the system there is a certain risk?
Overtapped: For now our operators to overseas acquisitions to expand overseas, I think this is a step to go overseas companies, but there are some specific issues to consider. For this academic problems, there are two views on the present, one that China has a very large local market, the first of these operators should do their own longer follow out the local market. In addition to the worldwide success of other countries in the Telecommunications business success stories, or very little, most are not very successful. China Mobile series of several major initiatives, eventually ended in the acquisition is not successful, including China Netcom, and other operators in overseas acquisitions, despite the acquisition is successful, But in the end came after the acquisition of the business is not very good.
it inside my view is that, out of the overseas this step is necessary, it should do so, as the world economy, all of China's enterprises should internationalization. One is to go among themselves into the international, and further added to the foreign market, the long term should do that too. But from our national telecommunications operators in the current situation is concerned, there may be some problems currently can be solved better to go out. One is even after the reform and opening up, our operating companies are listed overseas, but always from the investors is more uniformity, transition from a planned economy over the process, really in the market competition to the accumulated experience of all aspects of management and needs to be improved, especially in international management and international management experience in competitive greatly limits our operators to go out.
Even if we bought in one country operators, we're going to operate, and use of telecommunications services are very close, including the country's political, economic, cultural and social aspects must be further into it. if we can not go in depth, then, can not operate. Similarly, we you can see some foreign carriers attempting to enter the Chinese telecommunications market, they also face this problem, in addition to telecommunications service industry, there are trade in services into the Chinese business is a success because few cases are here. Services must be for the customer, the customer is what? is its people. The problem is not well, international management experience and other areas is not very mature, if fully operational only if, there is the problem.
foreign capital and foreign operators to enter the Chinese way, China Mobile has taken over the way from the level of equity capital, operated by a local to do, this is a good way. gradually training our own team, the accumulation of our experience, so to overseas is a more secure approach. while in the process, institutional reforms to strengthen the telecommunications industry is no longer one of the main investment. where we now although there are six major telecom operators, but is a boss, not from investors diversity to solve many problems. It is precisely because this has brought many of the domestic telecommunications market and international economic law and other laws contrary to the results, the reason here.
telecommunications industry in these years are profitable in terms of < br> Moderator: Some experts believe that China should move outward expansion ring expansion to the Chinese, Chinese-speaking population to the relatively large number of national expansion, so the experience of both the transplant in the past, after the localization process to the local will shorten a lot. < br> Overtapped: This is a good idea, although the Chinese in Southeast Asia is a circle, but after nearly a hundred years or even nearly two hundred years, with overseas Chinese and China's evolving labor export Chinese circle the world, they are now the second generation, the first three generations of Chinese living habits and their way of thinking and the thinking it is really authentic Chinese mainland areas is far worse. just to see this has certain advantages, and complete a number of advantages compared to the Western world, but we must or to see the difference between the very large, we must take seriously.
Moderator: Telecom industry to see how Richard Li, PCCW's takeover exit?
Overtapped: Richard Li, Li Ka-shing's own inherited style, Richard Li, in particular in the capital markets are best at, he had acquired Hong Kong Telecom and other networks of China Netcom shares or later and so are the levels of access from the capital. Early acquisition of Li Ka-shing has been in the European telecom companies, after a very short period after the acquisition came at the right time to sell quickly, which is operated from the capital level. As Richard Li is concerned, the acquisition of Pacific Century Group composed of the Hong Kong telecom PCCW in Hong Kong since, as a group is concerned, it not good to run from the industrial point of view, its strength in the capital markets. so that he could not achieve high growth, especially in the current telecom restructuring of this kind, the original very high corporate profits gradually narrow margin of profit, if transition well there will be a major crisis situation, it sold the operation from the perspective of the capital. As an entrepreneur or as a true business enterprise, and carry out any operation, from a profit point of view for the purpose of are understandable.
Moderator: whether Netcom had some experience dealing with not too full? is also a lack of domestic carriers in international emergency response experience.
Overtapped: This is a problem, once in Hong Kong The radio station has a telephone interview me, is not concerned with the country's political background? China Netcom Group acquired a 23% stake in Pacific Century Group, second only to the second largest shareholder, it is as true for telecom operators is It is an important step towards overseas, has not yet achieved profitability, we should sell the company as a whole Macquarie Group in Europe, in terms of their own interests from a group it considers inappropriate. is not like the legend of Hong Kong have a certain political reasons, I can not to comment, whether Ye Hao of China Telecom, China Netcom, Ye Hao, even Railcom, China Unicom, China Satcom The six companies are joint venture funded companies, major decisions must be made large investments in major shareholder approval, a detailed answer to this question should be by the SASAC.
Moderator: In recent years foreign operators and docking experience is what lessons? domestic Internet application is made by the United States together private capital, What can both learn from each other?
Overtapped: This is a big difference, put it bluntly, the Internet is at the operational level on the operation of the business aspects of the operation or service level, the future should be open, Internet From the beginning of the mission is open, collaborative network. as a traditional telecom carriers, until now, it carries the entire communications infrastructure of the State, this is speaking for any country, foreign is not open. this network not only the entire country's infrastructure, and involves national security issues, we bluntly.
At this point, this is the difference between the two. One is the base level, the upper one is operational level. operational level we open early to overseas, such as manufacturing and many of them open early. But for the most basic relates to the national economy and affecting the most basic issues of national development, open has to have a order and eventually to our WTO accession commitments, we still have to maintain a basic telecommunications 51%, and it also refers to the operations level, and does not include networking. This is not the same between the two places. At the same time reform After six major telecom operators in the four major carriers to overseas market, from the SASAC, the Development and Reform Commission's consideration, and hope to the overseas listing of these carriers, dock through the capital markets to cultivate our business in the future How to deal with the economic development of our capital markets, there is the price we pay a lot.
telecommunications industry is profitable in terms of these years, but although for overseas listing of some capital, but a large number of domestic users with the benefits and profits distributed to foreign and domestic investors or domestic users and do not enjoy the benefits of a listed company. Recently the Bank of China in the domestic market, overseas listing after it returned to the domestic market, Bank of China governor talked about getting us to return profits to the profits of domestic users. China's A share market returned to China Unicom, China Mobile in the near future in the telecommunications industry as the most profitable among the most profitable return on the domestic enterprises should be returned shareholders.
overseas capital market regulator on the internal management of operators now have a great promotion, we have a more personal feel, all these years we have been doing a lot of several major operators of soft technology, experience overseas Shareholders of the four major operators in the business itself, investment, management constraints, and this constraint is quite large. such as the reform and opening up the original time of the early and mid time of great development of telecommunications in various parts of the investment in fixed assets investment, especially real estate investment is very large, the money to 盖楼, money for development. Now is not the case, these shareholders each year to review your investment plan, especially if you have a fixed asset investment plan is not necessary, there is no step.
as we recently moved to Hainan, Hainan Mobile is now the 16th floor office building, the original plan was to 26 layers, then the middle of the constraints by the Hong Kong listed companies can not build it, according to the current operating conditions not need to build so high. then save a lot of money. We are, when this research, Hainan Mobile say that the business meet, and now the development does not meet, we need a new computer room and offices, in 16 layers continued on the basis of continued cover up or to buy a new place? This became a new problem. But after the overseas listing of domestic telecom operators for the management of a significant improvement, especially in investment, operation, effectiveness is greatly improved. submitted to a certain extent to pay tuition fees paid will not have to.
dispute
tired any 3G technology maturity in the market-driven applications are among the mature, but which is by no means mature in the laboratory, early to market as early maturity and late maturity of the market late ...